CSR shareholders (ASX:CSR) are in the red if they invested a year ago
Although not a stunning decision, it is good to see that the Limited CSR (ASX: CSR) the stock price has gained 12% over the past three months. But that doesn’t change the fact that returns over the past year have been less than pleasing. In fact, the price is down 20% in one year, below the returns you could get from investing in an index fund.
With that in mind, it’s worth looking at whether the company’s underlying fundamentals have been driving long-term performance, or if there are any gaps.
Although the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are overly reactive dynamic systems and that investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get an idea of how investors’ attitudes toward a company change over time.
Even though CSR’s share price is down over the year, its EPS has actually improved. Of course, the situation could betray the previous excess of optimism regarding growth.
It’s fair to say that the stock price doesn’t seem to reflect EPS growth. But we might find different measures that better explain stock price movements.
We don’t see any weakness in the CSR dividend, so the regular payout can’t really explain the stock price drop. From what we can see, earnings are pretty flat, which doesn’t really explain the stock price drop. Unless, of course, the market expects higher earnings.
The image below shows how earnings and income have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see more details).
CSR is a well-known stock, with extensive analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility on future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check what analysts think CSR win in the future (free consensus estimates from analysts)
What about dividends?
In addition to measuring share price performance, investors should also consider total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital increases, as well as any dividends, assuming the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture of stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of CSR, it has a TSR of -15% for the last 1 year. This exceeds the performance of its share price that we mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company thus inflated the total return to shareholders.
A different perspective
We regret to inform you that CSR shareholders are down 15% over the year (including dividends). Unfortunately, this is worse than the general market decline of 2.8%. That said, it is inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer-term investors wouldn’t be so upset, as they would have gained 6%, every year, over five years. It could be that the recent selloff is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamentals for signs of a long-term growth trend. It is always interesting to follow the evolution of the share price over the long term. But to better understand CSR, we need to consider many other factors. Take for example the ubiquitous specter of investment risk. We have identified 3 warning signs with CSR (at least 1 which cannot be ignored) and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
But note: CSR may not be the best stock to buy. So take a look at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and new growth forecasts).
Please note that the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market-weighted average returns of stocks currently trading on AU exchanges.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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